28-day Mortality Prediction for Critically Ill Patients in the Intensive Care Unit: Physician-nurse vs. Score. A Prospective Observational Study

What this Trial Is About

Researchers are evaluating how well experienced intensive care unit (ICU) physicians and nurses can predict patient mortality within 28 days compared to three established scoring models: APACHE 2, MPM 2, and MODS. This study aims to determine whether medical staff predictions are as accurate or better than these models, which are used to guide ICU admission and care management decisions. It also explores which factors most influence the predictions made by ICU staff. This research is a prospective observational study involving about 2,000 patients admitted to the ICU between 2025 and 2027. For each patient, mortality risk will be calculated using the three scoring systems, while three senior ICU physicians and one experienced ICU nurse independently estimate the risk based on their clinical judgment. The reasons behind the medical and nursing staff's mortality risk assessments will also be documented. Participants will be monitored during their ICU stay, with mortality predictions recorded and compared over a 28-day period. The study measures how accurately ICU staff and scoring systems predict mortality, helping to assess the reliability of clinical judgment versus model-based scores. The findings may inform future ICU care strategies and patient management. The study is sponsored by Meir Medical Center and does not involve any intervention or treatment changes for participants.

28-day Mortality Prediction for Critically Ill Patients in the Intensive Care Unit: Physician-nurse vs. Score