The Causal Effect of Bariatric Surgery on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

What this Trial Is About

Researchers are studying the effects of bariatric surgery on cardiovascular disease and mortality in individuals with obesity. This observational study aims to understand if weight loss from bariatric surgery reduces the risk of cardiovascular events and death, and to determine which type of surgery—gastric bypass or sleeve gastrectomy—is most effective for different patients. The project uses advanced causal inference and machine learning methods with data from Swedish registers to address these questions. The study compares health outcomes between people who undergo different types of bariatric surgery and those who receive non-surgical obesity management. Bariatric surgery is known to cause significant weight loss and is evaluated here for its potential to reduce cardiovascular disease and mortality over a 20-year period. Researchers use data analytics to estimate individual treatment effects and identify patient groups that may benefit most from each surgery type. Participants are identified through national registers and include adults diagnosed with obesity who have no prior cardiovascular disease or cancer and no contraindications for surgery. The study will track cardiovascular disease occurrences and death from any cause over 20 years. Data analysis involves causal inference tools and expert knowledge to provide insights into long-term outcomes. The study is sponsored by Karolinska Institutet and started in 2024, with results expected by 2027.

The Causal Effect of Bariatric Surgery on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality